Operational XRO Climate Forecasts

📝 XRO Niño3.4 SST anomaly monthly forecast data

Deterministic XRO Niño3.4 SST anomaly monthly forecasts (where stochastic forcing terms are excluded during model integration, see Zhao et al., 2024, Nature for model formulation and details.)

• Units are in degrees Celsius (°C)
• Forecasts are updated monthly

📝 Notes:

• Lead = 0 month corresponds to the observed Niño3.4 anomaly (i.e., the initial condition).
• Positive leads (Lead = 1, 2, …) represent forecast months after initialization.
• Warm anomalies (El Niño) and cold anomalies (La Niña) are shaded for clarity based on thresholds:
  • Red: ≥ +1.5 °C
  • Light red: +0.5 to +1.5 °C
  • White: –0.5 to +0.5 °C
  • Light blue: –1.5 to –0.5 °C
  • Blue: ≤ –1.5 °C
• Forecasts are most reliable within the first few leads (1–6 months), depending on the season and background state.